Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.
It's too early to be absolutely sure on which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Christian McCaffrey). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
It's also important to have a keen eye for matchups dictated by the remaining schedule. I am now updating my projected Strength of Schedule rankings broken down by position available on SportsLine. My objective is to break down how the schedule affects every Fantasy relevant player for the upcoming four weeks, the playoff stretch and the entire season. You'll also be able to find my key takeaways on which players you should buy low, sell high and more trade advice. If you'd like to try out SportsLine, use the promo code RICHARD at checkout and you'll pay just a dollar for the first month. Easy peasy!
If you love precision passing offenses, this game isn't for you. Both teams should come into the matchup trying to dominate time of possession, force punts and win with defense. It should lead to large workloads for all running backs involved while the offenses take calculated shots with play-action passing. The Steelers have the better offensive line, better receiving corps, and until proven otherwise, the better quarterback. Eventually it should show to help them win.
- STARTS: Both DSTs, Diontae Johnson (flex), Jaylen Warren (low-end RB2/flex)
- SITS: Ezekiel Elliott (low-end RB2 in PPR), Najee Harris (flex), George Pickens, all Patriots WRs (except for Demario Douglas who would be a low-end full-PPR WR3/flex), all Patriots TEs, both QBs
- SLEEPERS: Pat Freiermuth
The Patriots O-line struggles to sustain blocks and the offense is so limited in moving the ball that it has played just 15 snaps inside the five-yard line this season -- somehow that's only third-worst. That limits Elliott's touchdown upside, and while the veteran has some solid lateral agility to make defenders miss and still has really good hands (a selling point for him in PPR!), he's just not fast enough to create a bunch of breakaway plays. I'm also not sure the Patriots will put everything on Elliott's plate when they've rarely let one back handle nearly every snap this year -- going into Week 13, Rhamondre Stevenson had played under 70% of the snaps in eight of his prior nine games. Could Elliott get 15 touches including three or more catches? *That* feels safe, but everything else is a significant risk, even against a defense that's going through some run defense issues like the Steelers. He's at best a low-end RB2 in full PPR and otherwise a low-upside play. I'd rather start Keaton Mitchell, Joe Mixon and Chuba Hubbard.
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The Bucs have scored 21 or fewer points in each of their past four and in seven of their past eight games overall. Baker Mayfield hasn't thrown more than 31 times in four of his past five. They might stick with that balanced approach against the Falcons, who HAVE eclipsed 21 points in 4 of their past 5 (since their win over the Bucs in Week 7). Desmond Ridder's two starts have netted two wins, but it's been more because of Bijan Robinson than anything else. Tampa Bay's run defense has collapsed over the past two weeks (4.9 yards per carry allowed to the Colts and Panthers) but it looks like LaVonte David will be back, giving them a boost. The Falcons aren't shy about running the ball against anybody.
- STARTS: Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Bijan Robinson
- SITS: Drake London (low-end PPR flex), Chris Godwin, all TEs, both QBs, both DSTs
In Desmond Ridder's first game back as the Falcons starter he connected with London on 5 of 7 targets against the Saints for 91 yards. Then London went up against the Jets, who were excellent in coverage against him, and ultimately the Falcons didn't have to score many points to beat a poor offensive team. London looks fine in his route-running; his problem is that he's on a low-volume passing team with an off-target passer. And, London has zero red-zone or end-zone targets not only his past two with Ridder, but in his past four overall. All of these factors make for a tough-to-trust situation against what appears to be a slightly improving Buccaneers pass defense that's started to play more man coverage lately (London has had much more success against zone coverage). I'd use caution in starting London and would buy into the upside of Elijah Moore, Jayden Reed and Zay Flowers instead.
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The Ravens have a way of annihilating NFC teams -- they've already whooped Detroit and Seattle in their building and they outscored Arizona on the road. Their offensive style is unique and tough to prepare for, made even tougher by a strong offensive line that's coming off a week of much-needed rest. The Rams run defense got throttled at Green Bay in a game where a Matthew Stafford-less offense couldn't sustain more than two drives with seven or more plays, but since then they've limited running backs to 3.9 yards per carry, four runs of 10-plus yards and zero rushing touchdowns. I would expect the Ravens to not care at all and attempt to bludgeon the Rams front with a dose of Keaton Mitchell and Gus Edwards. It's worth noting that Mitchell led the Ravens' RBs in snaps (33 of 71), carries (nine) and rush yards (64) while also catching a pair of targets for 25 yards. I expect him to be the lead runner for the Ravens moving forward, though they'd be silly to pull Edwards from goal-line duty.
- STARTS: Lamar Jackson, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Zay Flowers (flex), Cooper Kupp (PPR flex)
- SITS: Matthew Stafford, Odell Beckham, Gus Edwards, Rams DST
- SLEEPERS: Keaton Mitchell, Isaiah Likely (low-end starter), Ravens DST
Detroit's defense is in a really tough spot. Over their past four games offenses have teed off on them with the deep ball (five touchdowns on throws of 15-plus Air Yards over their past four games not including three scores set up by deep completions by the Saints last week). They're also expected to be without top D-lineman Alim McNeil and tackle machine Alex Anzalone, making their run defense punchable. That terrible combination is only made harder by a road trip to Chicago to take on a rested Bears team coming off the bye with Justin Fields at quarterback. Fields has run for over 100 yards in each of his past three games against the Lions including 104 yards in Week 11, and there's no doubt he will test the Lions secondary with deep lobs to D.J. Moore and others -- something he already did in their first meeting this season.
- STARTS: Justin Fields, Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Moore, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Cole Kmet (low-end TE1)
- SITS: Jared Goff (borderline QB1), Khalil Herbert, both DSTs
- SLEEPERS: Roschon Johnson (flex), Jameson Williams
Jake Browning took his ability to read defenses and put it up against an ill-prepared Jaguars squad to create stunning magic in Week 13. I'd bet against it happening to the same level against Indianapolis. Browning also barely threw the ball downfield -- of his 37 passes, 13 were thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage (0 or negative Air Yards) and 14 traveled more than five yards past the line of scrimmage. The Colts also play a ton of zone coverage (they lead the league in Cover-3 reps by nearly 100 snaps), so Browning should keep his throws short. Eight of the past nine quarterbacks the Colts have played have had below 20 Fantasy points; only two had 17-to-19 points, and the list includes Trevor Lawrence, Derek Carr and Baker Mayfield. If Browning turns back into a pumpkin, then Ja'Marr Chase's stats are pretty much a lock to be closer to his Week 12 numbers rather than Week 13.
- STARTS: Michael Pittman, Ja'Marr Chase, Zack Moss, Joe Mixon (low-end RB2), Colts DST
- SITS: Tee Higgins, Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, Tyler Boyd, Tanner Hudson, Gardner Minshew, Jake Browning, Bengals DST
The Browns tend to play a lot of man-to-man coverage and get after the quarterback, a combination that could be a real problem for the Jaguars. Calvin Ridley has previously struggled with physical play, something the Browns are sure to bring a lot of, plus they're very likely to hone in on Ridley with Christian Kirk sidelined. But that's not the Jaguars' biggest problem -- C.J. Beathard playing in place of Trevor Lawrence is a very obvious issue they have to try and work around. Quick-paced passing with well-timed deep shots might have to be where the Jaguars turn, but Beathard hasn't played much since 2020 and has below-ideal career marks in completion rate (59.5%), TD rate (3.4%) and yards per attempt (6.9). I would expect the Browns defense to get back on track this week after collapsing in the fourth quarter last week.
- STARTS: Travis Etienne, Evan Engram, Jerome Ford (flex), Browns DST
- SITS: Calvin Ridley (flex or high-end WR3), David Njoku (low-end TE1), Parker Washington, Kareem Hunt, Jaguars DST
- SLEEPERS: Joe Flacco, Elijah Moore
It's already been nerve-wracking to trust Ridley. Can we do it this week when he's expected to be without his quarterback and facing a tough road matchup? Going from Trevor Lawrence to C.J. Beathard is an obvious downgrade, and it's not helped by the Jaguars facing a Browns defense that boasts the third-best pass rush pressure rate in the league and has given up just nine passing touchdowns to receivers this season. Worse yet, they'll be feisty after getting embarrassed by the Rams on the road last weekend. Lastly, Ridley seems to struggle the most against physical cornerbacks, and the Browns are expected to play plenty of man-to-man coverage. That combination, on top of everything else Ridley's facing this week, makes him tougher to trust than usual. Even if Lawrence plays, Ridley isn't much better than a high-end WR3. I'd rather start Rashee Rice, Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton.
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When Jameis Winston began 2022 as the Saints' starting QB, he had a terrific Week 1 but hurt his back, then threw five interceptions in his next two games and then never got his job back. He couldn't dethrone Andy Dalton last year and only is getting a chance this week because Derek Carr suffered his second concussion in a month along with a rib injury. Clearly there's some reluctance from this coaching staff to let Winston back on the field. We may have gotten a glimpse why last week when Winston completed a 30-yard pass with the help of a tip from a Lions defender, then his final two throws were off-target and wound up costing the Saints a chance at a come-from-behind win. I would expect to see a lot of Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara in this game as the Saints should be able to mow through a Panthers run defense that's allowed 15-plus PPR points to a running back in seven of their past eight. Carolina has seen quarterbacks throw just 29.3 times per game this season, the second-lowest number for a defense this year.
- STARTS: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Taysom Hill, Chuba Hubbard
- SITS: Adam Thielen, Juwan Johnson, both QBs
- SLEEPERS: Jonathan Mingo (great PPR stash)
You might not like reading this, but in three quarters without Tank Dell, C.J. Stroud looked pretty mortal. A few passes could have been big plays if not for some mistakes (Stroud overthrew John Metchie on what might have been a long touchdown and was off-target on a couple of other throws), but the jarring difference was the Broncos unafraid to get after Stroud -- and succeed. Stroud was sacked five times after Dell's injury. That's bad news for an offense about to face a Jets defense that complements their pressure-savvy defensive line with a super-stingy secondary. It's a bad spot for Stroud.
The Texans rotated their running backs by series last week, a change from the week prior when Singletary dominated playing time. But they also started using Dare Ogunbowale on third downs again, especially on drives Pierce started. I wonder if they'll use Ogunbowale even more in passing situations after Singletary whiffed on multiple pass blocks last week. Anyway, it was happenstance that Pierce saw all three short-yardage snaps (and a goal-line touchdown), but there's not much doubt that the more consistent runner is Singletary. If I had to pick between the two, I'd go with Singletary, but both runners shouldn't be counted on for more than 10 touches each. That's too bad: The Jets have allowed at least 17 PPR points to a running back in six of their past nine games.
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Pierce alternated drives with Singletary last week and only got the touchdown because the drive he was on got close enough to the end zone. The Texans made it a point to get Pierce off the field on pretty much every third down (Dare Ogunbowale came in), and even though Pierce had the longest and nicest carry for the team, he's not nearly as consistent as Singletary. I suspect both backs will keep rotating with Ogunbowale seeing more passing-down snaps. It spells a very limited ceiling for Pierce, who probably would need to score again just to carry any decent Fantasy value against the Jets.
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Before Josh Dobbs melted down against the Bears in the Vikings' last game, he had four straight with at least 18 Fantasy points and three with at least 25. And while he definitely did not play well in his last game, you could argue that half of his interceptions weren't his fault and that he got his act together ... eventually. There's a lot in his favor this week: The Raiders pass rush is one of the weakest in the league, their secondary has only looked passable against incredibly weak competition this season, and a receiver you might have heard of -- Justin Jefferson -- is back and should serve as Dobbs' top target. Expect the Vikings to give Dobbs another real chance to lead this offense in what's become a must-win game for the Vikings' playoff chances.
- STARTS: Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams, T.J. Hockenson, Josh Jacobs, Jordan Addison (PPR flex), Josh Dobbs
- SITS: Alexander Mattison, Michael Mayer, Aidan O'Connell, Raiders DST
- SLEEPERS: Jakobi Meyers (PPR only), Vikings DST
Seattle found a way to overcome a tough defense with help from said tough defense. On three of their five touchdown drives, the Cowboys committed penalties that extended possessions and gave Seattle extra opportunities. Without them, a lot of stat lines would have looked a lot different (but DK Metcalf still would have had a monster game). The 49ers have not only done very well defending Seattle's offense over the past two seasons (four meetings), but per TruMedia Sports, the Niners have four total defensive penalties in their matchups. That's it. An already-staunch defense figures to make things harder on the Seahawks with their elevated pass rush and pass defense.
- STARTS: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Zach Charbonnet (flex), 49ers DST
- SITS: Tyler Lockett, Geno Smith, Seahawks DST
- SLEEPERS: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (PPR only)
By now it's clear that the Chiefs offense just isn't as dominant as it's been in the past. Downfield passing has been a mess, intermediate passing has been hot and cold, and most specifically, the offensive line hasn't been consistent. True, it held up last week but they did allow a pressure on 40.4% of their snaps in their four prior games. That's bad news heading into this week's matchup -- Buffalo's applied pressure on 43.3% of their snaps in their past three games when rushing just four guys. Kansas City has two games this year when they've thrown the ball less than 57% of the time -- a blowout win against the Bears and a close win in Week 4 against the Jets. Employing a run-heavy strategy in an attempt to win the time of possession battle and attack the weakest part of the Bills defense would make some sense. If they do it, play-action passing would then get kicked up a notch and give the Chiefs a great shot to out-score Josh Allen & Co.
- STARTS: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Stefon Diggs, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook
- SITS: Both DSTs
- SLEEPERS: Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir (great PPR stash)
I don't know if pitching a shutout against this version of the Patriots is a masterful event for the Chargers, especially since their offense could only muster up six points. We could blame the weather, we could blame the pace of the game, but the reality is that L.A.'s offensive line, weak receiving corps after Keenan Allen and some uncharacteristic play from Austin Ekeler has been contributing to their lack of production. The Chargers have scored 20 or fewer points in three straight, forcing them to lean into their defense to keep games close. It worked out last week but I suspect the Broncos will bounce back after Russell Wilson's untimely turnover-laden loss and put up enough points while slowing down the Chargers offense. On both sides of the ball, Denver will make things tough on the Chargers.
- STARTS: Keenan Allen, Courtland Sutton, Austin Ekeler (RB2, not a RB1), Gerald Everett (low-end TE1), Broncos DST
- SITS: Justin Herbert (better if Josh Palmer plays), Russell Wilson, Javonte Williams (flex), Jerry Jeudy, Chargers DST
No one's expecting a low-scoring defensive battle between these two teams, but it's going to be tough to count on big games from the running backs. Both defenses allow less than 4.0 yards per carry on the season, and both rank in the top-5 in fewest Fantasy points allowed. Both lead running backs also struggle to score: D'Andre Swift is tied for the seventh-most carries among running backs from inside the 5-yard line this season with 11, but has only three touchdowns to show for it. Only one running back has at least as many carries inside the 5 but fewer touchdowns: Tony Pollard, and he's had 14 carries! The team that might actually commit to the run (to take pressure off its quarterback) is Philadelphia, and if that massive O-line can rebound after their tough matchup last week, they could actually control the game. I wouldn't expect a world-beater game from Swift, but I might expect him to get more work than Pollard.
- STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown, Jake Ferguson, D'Andre Swift, Tony Pollard (RB2), Dallas Goedert
- SITS: Both DSTs
- SLEEPERS: Brandin Cooks, Kenneth Gainwell (great stash)
I want pieces of the Cowboys offense in their showdown against the Eagles and Cooks has been pretty productive lately. He's scored in each of his past two, three of his past four and five of his past seven -- and in that jumbled correlation he's also managed to hit paydirt in four straight games at home. To be fair, that touchdown production has covered up an ugly target share this season -- he's had 20%-plus of the looks from Prescott just once all year and over 15% just five times. He also had one catch in his last game against Philly. But this Eagles pass defense has continued to struggle, especially with speed. To that end, Philly has allowed multiple scores to wide receivers in four of its past five games. They'll be hard-pressed to find a solution in this game. I have Cooks right on the border of a WR 2/3 in PPR as someone I'd start over Cooper Kupp, DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley.
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This could be a pretty lopsided game. Tennessee last won on the road in Week 11 of 2022 (at Green Bay). They'll already have their hands full with the mighty Dolphins offense, but they'll play without their best player and top-notch lane clogger Jeffrey Simmons. It should negatively impact everything the Titans do defensively, including pressuring Tua Tagovailoa and slowing down their track team of running backs.
In three games this year when the Titans have lost by two-plus scores, Henry has averaged 10.7 attempts and 27.3 rushing yards per game and a miserable 3.5 PPR points per game. It's the only game script that might/should tank Henry's numbers -- in Titans wins and one-score losses Henry has averaged really good Fantasy numbers, though much of them are because he scores. The Dolphins run defense is giving up 4.1 yards per carry, but 3.9 in its past four. It has allowed six rushing touchdowns all year, none in its past five games. If the game isn't as close as the oddsmakers have made it out to be (13.5-point spread), then Henry's going to have a tough game. I would rather start upside plays in Keaton Mitchell, Chuba Hubbard and Jerome Ford.
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- STARTS: Tyreek Hill, De'Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, Jaylen Waddle, Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins DST, DeAndre Hopkins (PPR flex)
- SITS: Derrick Henry, Will Levis, Titans DST
- SLEEPERS: Tyjae Spears (great stash), Chig Okonkwo (great stash)
When the Packers needed to make plays last week, they came through and held the Chiefs to early field goals instead of allowing touchdowns. Some questionable late-game non-calls by the referees may have helped Green Bay otherwise, but its defense does seem to be taking baby steps forward. One place it's not happening is against the run, where Isiah Pacheco is the latest of four running backs to eclipse 15 PPR points in the Packers past four games. Expect the Giants to continue focusing their offense around Saquon Barkley and select play-action passes.
- STARTS: Saquon Barkley, Jayden Reed (PPR flex), A.J. Dillon (flex), Jordan Love
- SITS: Romeo Doubs, Giants DST
- SLEEPERS: Packers DST, Jalin Hyatt (great stash)
