Fantasy Football Week 14 WR Preview: Don't worry about regression this week, start Courtland Sutton

No one wants to hear about how the guy who did great things probably can't keep them up. But it you were looking for guys to write that about, Courtland Sutton would be one of the top candidates. 

What stands out about Sutton is obvious; his 12% touchdown rate. He's scored nine times on 75 targets this year. From 2020 through 2022 he scored four touchdowns on 213 targets. Virtually no one scores at a 10% clip, much less a 12% clip, so regression is coming at some point, just maybe not this year. Hopefully not in Week 14.

To put this in context, Sutton currently ranks 35th in receptions, 29th in receiving yards, and 18th in PPR Fantasy points. His touchdowns have turned a No. 3 wide receiver into a must-start No. 2. Regression analysis would tell you this won't last. At least for Week 14, I don't care.

Sutton's Week 14 opponent, the Chargers, have given up the third most Fantasy points to wide receivers this season. They've allowed 13 touchdowns to the position in 12 games. Sutton has faced three other top-five matchups and he's scored 13.2 points against the Raiders, 19.1 against the Dolphins, and 16.6 against the Vikings. Of course, he also scored a touchdown in all three of those games.

The final point about Sutton that can get lost in the analysis is that there is a reason he's scoring so often. He's been targeted on 48% of Russell Wilson's throws into the end zone, which ranks second in the NFL, and Wilson has historically (and this season) produced one of the highest touchdown rates in the league. 

You'll find Sutton inside my top 20 wide receivers this week and in my starting lineups. 

You can find more in my weekly projections over at Sportsline. Now here is the rest of the Week 14 WR Preview:

Week 14 WR Preview

The following players are not being projected to play Week 14 at this time. Here's what it means:

Tank Dell WR HOU Houston • #13 Age: 24 • Experience: Rookie Nico Collins is a must-start WR, Noah Brown is a fun flex, and John Metchie is a deep flex.

Christian Kirk WR JAC Jacksonville • #13 Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs. Parker Washington is a deep flex.

Christian Watson WR GB Green Bay • #9 Age: 24 • Experience: 2 yrs. Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs get a boost.

• 41 -- Michael Pittman has seen 41 targets in his last three games. He's a borderline top-five wide receiver against the Bengals this week. 
• 10 -- Mike Evans went over 1,000 receiving yards for the 10th straight season. He has double-digit touchdowns in five of those seasons. 
• 27 -- Adam Thielen only has 27 receiving yards in his last two games combined. Jonathan Mingo looks like the Panthers' No. 1 and Thielen looks like someone you'd rather sit.
• 2.91 -- Nico Collins' 2.91 YPRR ranks third behind only Tyreek Hill and Brandon Aiyuk this season. He should be a league winner without Tank Dell.
• 2.92 -- Deebo Samuel leads all receivers at 2.92 Fantasy points per target. Brandon Aiyuk is second at 2.48.
• 30.6% -- Rashee Rice leads the Chiefs with a 30.6% target share over the past two weeks. As he runs more routes those efficiency stats are starting to pay off in Fantasy production.

Matchups that matter

Projections powered by Sportsline

Noah Brown WR HOU Houston • #85 Age: 27 • Experience: 7 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP @ NYJ HOU -6 O/U 33 OPP VS WR 1st PROJ PTS 8.4 WR RNK 42nd YTD Stats REC 21 TAR 30 REYDS 439 TD 1 FPTS/G 11.8

Cooper Kupp WR LAR L.A. Rams • #10 Age: 30 • Experience: 7 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP @ BAL BAL -7 O/U 40.5 OPP VS WR 22nd PROJ PTS 12.4 WR RNK 26th YTD Stats REC 33 TAR 59 REYDS 432 TD 2 FPTS/G 11.3

Courtland Sutton WR DEN Denver • #14 Age: 28 • Experience: 6 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP @ LAC LAC -3 O/U 44 OPP VS WR 23rd PROJ PTS 11 WR RNK 21st YTD Stats REC 50 TAR 75 REYDS 637 TD 9 FPTS/G 13.5

Week 14 Adds (WR Preview)

Jonathan Mingo WR CAR Carolina • #15 Age: 22 • Experience: Rookie Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP @ NO NO -5 O/U 37.5 OPP VS WR 25th WR RNK 44th ROSTERED 24% YTD Stats REC 34 TAR 67 REYDS 355 TD 0 FPTS/G 6.3 Mingo saw a season-high 10 targets in the Panthers first game since their coaching change. It was his fourth straight game with at least six targets and his second game in a row with double-digit PPR Fantasy points. He has top 24 upside in this role, but he'll have to get into the end zone to make that happen, which he hasn't done yet.

Elijah Moore WR CLE Cleveland • #8 Age: 23 • Experience: 3 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP vs JAC CLE -3 O/U 30.5 OPP VS WR 21st WR RNK 34th ROSTERED 53% Moore saw a season-high 12 targets in Week 13. You can attribute this mostly to the fact that Amari Cooper missed most of the game, but Moore does know Joe Flacco from his time with the Jets. If Cooper misses Week 14 Moore is a good flex with top 20 upside.

Odell Beckham Jr. WR BAL Baltimore • #3 Age: 31 • Experience: 9 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP vs LAR BAL -7 O/U 40 OPP VS WR 22nd WR RNK 42nd ROSTERED 57% YTD Stats REC 27 TAR 47 REYDS 408 TD 2 FPTS/G 7.8 Beckham was a part-time player before the bye, but his 41% TPRR in his last two games shows a player who could be a Fantasy starter if he got healthy while the Ravens were off. I'd rather stash Beckham than start him, but he's a TD-dependent flex this week.

Stashes (WR Preview)

Demario Douglas WR NE New England • #81 Age: 23 • Experience: Rookie Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP @ PIT PIT -6 O/U 30 OPP VS WR 2nd WR RNK NR ROSTERED 43% YTD Stats REC 36 TAR 55 REYDS 410 TD 0 FPTS/G 7.8 Douglas has already been ruled out for Thursday, so he may be dropped in more leagues than he's added in this week. Still, he had 18 targets in his last two games and I expect him to be right back in that role once he's healthy. That would make him a WR3 in the Fantasy playoffs.

Top DFS Play (WR Preview)

Projections powered by Sportsline

Ja'Marr Chase WR CIN Cincinnati • #1 Age: 23 • Experience: 3 yrs. Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP vs IND IND -1 O/U 40 OPP VS WR 4th PROJ PTS 16.7 WR RNK 12th YTD Stats REC 86 TAR 124 REYDS 1063 TD 7 FPTS/G 19.5 It took one week for Chase to remind us that he is QB-proof. Jake Browning has thrown 28% of his passes to Chase and Chase is averaging 1.6 FP/TGT on throws from Browning. If what Browning showed on Monday night is even close to real, Chase is underpriced by $1,000.

Contrarian DFS Play (WR Preview)

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Keenan Allen WR LAC L.A. Chargers • #13 Age: 31 • Experience: 11 year Weekly Breakdown MATCHUP vs DEN LAC -3 O/U 44 OPP VS WR 7th PROJ PTS 19.3 WR RNK 3rd YTD Stats REC 102 TAR 138 REYDS 1175 TD 8 FPTS/G 22.3 The top contrarian play last week was Nico Collins, let's hope we can repeat that. Allen completely busted last week but we're talking about a guy who already has three 30-point outbursts this season and he's likely to be lower rostered than he should be.

My full set of Week 14 Fantasy Football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 14. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available at Sportsline.