The Baltimore Ravens defense is elite. There should be no question about that. They have allowed the fewest points to quarterbacks this season, the second fewest to wide receivers, the seventh fewest to tight ends, and the eighth fewest to running backs. But we're still viewing Kyren Williams as a must-start running back in Week 14.
Williams is RB3 on the season per game and has topped 100 total yards in four of his last five games. He has 11 targets over his past two games and has scored in all but two games this year. He has been above averaged as a rusher (5.1 YPC) and a receiver (8.6 YPC).
This is the type of resume that gets you ranked as a must-start running back even against the worst of matchups, and the Baltimore Ravens are certainly a bad matchup. But considering that Williams just delivered 20.2 Fantasy points against the Browns and earlier this season scored 28 Fantasy points against the 49ers, you must ignore the matchup and start your stud in this instance.
13.7% -- Jaylen Warren leads all backs (minimum 60 rushes) with a 13.7% explosive run rate. He's an upside flex this week in a terrible matchup.
31.8% -- James Conner's 31.8% avoid rate trails only Warren this season. He has been very good as a rusher and should be a start in the Fantasy playoffs.
17.9% -- De'Von Achane doesn't have 60 carries yet this season but he does own a 17.9% explosive run rate and a 32.1% avoid rate, which would both lead the league if he had enough carries.
74% -- Roschon Johnson played a season-high 74% of the offensive snaps in Week 12. Now we get to find out if that was the start of a trend or just a one-week blimp because D'Onta Foreman was out.
21 -- With Rhamondre Stevenson leaving early in Week 13, Ezekiel Elliott saw 21 touches. He's not exciting, but he is a top 24 running back without Stevenson.
9 -- Isiah Pacheco has seen 9 targets in his past two games without Jerick McKinnon. He's a top five running back this week if McKinnon remains out.
If you missed Ezekiel Elliott, Roschon Johnson is the next best thing in Week 14. The Lions have a very good run defense but they have given up a lot of yardage to backs in the passing game and Johnson is the best pass catcher in the backfield. If I'm looking for playoff upside over Week 14 projection, I'm adding Johnson over Elliott.
Chandler was really disappointing in his last game before the bye, but he'd scored double-digit Fantasy points in back-to-back games before that. The Raiders have been a bottom-10 defense against opposing running backs this season, so the matchup isn't terrible. Chandler is a mid-flex this week but if he comes out of the bye seeing more work he could be an RB2 in the Fantasy playoffs.
Brown popped for the first time on Monday Night Football, picking up 61 yards on nine rushes against the Jaguars. He's still just a bench stash for now, but an injury to Joe Mixon would thrust Brown into Fantasy lineups.
Moss was disappointing in Week 13 but he has a much better matchup against the Bengals in Week 14. They've allowed five touchdowns to running backs in their last four games and more than 140 rushing yards in two of those games. Moss is completely dominating snaps and touches for the Colts and is a cash game centerpiece this week.
No, I'm not done banging my head against this wall yet. Hall still has the same big play ability and he's still seeing an insane number of targets. Even in a bad matchup he has RB1 overall upside in Week 14. If you can get that at a discount price and low roster rate you shouldn't think twice.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 14 Fantasy Football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 14. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
