Fantasy Baseball: First mock draft for 2024 shows room for debate within the starting pitcher ranks

You know those early rankings I've been releasing over the past few weeks? Well, the time finally came to put them to the test with our first mock draft (12-team Rotisserie) for 2024.

And based on the results of that, I might need to rip them up and start over again.

OK, so not really, but I was floored to see how varied opinions actually are, in all phases of the draft. True, I've mostly been siloed with my own thoughts up until now, but I've relied on early NFBC ADP data as a sort sanity check. So I know I'm sane. What about everyone else?

Honestly, I think this particular landscape is uniquely suited for divergent thought. Between the overloaded infield positions and the "globbing" at starting pitcher, both byproducts of the rule changes that made for more base runners and more base running last year, it's especially hard to pin down who should rank where. Generally, when someone made a pick that belied my rankings, my response was less "what on earth?" than "yeah, I could see it."

The consensus will grow over time. It always does once everyone completes their rankings and gets a few mock drafts under their belt. But we're all feeling our way through it right now, and the feeling is an uneasy one.

So who was in their feelings this time? Why, these 12:

1) George Kurtz, Sportsgrid (@GeorgeKurtz)
2) Phil Ponebshek, Patton & Company
3) R.J. White, CBS Sports (@rjwhite1)
4) Tim Kanak, Fantasy Aceball (@fantasyaceball)
5) Jake Holland, formerly The Toss Up podcast (@jakebaseball17)
6) David Mendelson, Triple Play Fantasy (@DMendy02)
7) Frank Stampfl, CBS Sports (@Roto_Frank)
8) Doug Roe, former Podcast League champ
9) Scott White, CBS Sports (@CBSScottWhite)
10) Mike Gianella, Baseball Prospectus (@MikeGianella)
11) Chris Welsh, In This League podcast (@IsItTheWelsh)
12) B_Don, Razzball (@RazzBDon)

To address my team real quick, I'll start by saying I'm surprised how much I invested in pitching, which may have been a byproduct of some other teams not investing so much in pitching. But I did follow my No. 1 rule for drafting pitching in Rotisserie leagues this year, which is to only pay up for strikeouts. Kevin Gausman (Round 3), Blake Snell (Round 5) and Cole Ragans (Round 7) certainly fit the bill. Meanwhile, Justin Steele (Round 10) was probably my biggest bargain of the entire draft.

I also made a point not to draft a pitcher until all the MVP-caliber bats were gone, which is my other big rule regarding pitching this year. The choice in Round 3 came down to Gausman and Gunnar Henderson, who was just shy of the cutoff for me. Had Marcus Semien, who went just before Gausman, still been there, I would have taken him instead.

Another counterfactual to ponder is if I had taken Matt Olson with the fourth pick in Round 2 rather than Corey Seager. The two are basically neck-and-neck, but I've decided batting average should be the higher priority in the early rounds. Amazingly, Olson lasted all the way to the end of Round 2. That the same person could draft both him and Ronald Acuña (George Kurtz of Sportsgrid) seems like a glitch in the Matrix.

Here are a few other scattered observations from the draft:

• Rafael Devers at 17 seems like a holdover pick from a year ago. It's certainly defensible to take him near the Round 2-3 turn, but it's not defensible to take him ahead of Olson, Bryce Harper and Gerrit Cole. Frankly, I'd prefer Francisco Lindor and Austin Riley to him as well.
• C.J. Abrams was the 38th overall pick, which is justifiable given the impact he could have in stolen bases, but it'll take the right build. Him going to the same guy who selected Trea Turner in Round 1 (Chris Welsh) probably isn't it.
• Manny Machado was drafted 40th overall (by me) while Royce Lewis was selected 59th (by Welsh), which is almost precisely the opposite of what early ADP on NFBC shows. Obviously, I prefer it this way and do think there's danger in elevating Lewis, for as talented as he may be, over an early-round mainstay who's still in the prime of his career.
• Enthusiasm for second-year pitchers Eury Perez and Grayson Rodriguez appears to be high seeing as they were drafted in Round 6. I prefer both Ragans and Kodai Senga, who went a round later. Meanwhile, another rookie standout, Bobby Miller, lasted to Round 10. I actually rank him directly between Perez and Rodriguez.
• Yu Darvish was also drafted ahead of Ragans and Senga, which is about 100 picks early for my liking. But he does have a track record of success, and as I've already said, this pitching landscape leaves plenty of room for disagreement.
  
• The first closer didn't go off the board until Pick 77, and it was Emmanuel Clase. Neither of those figure to be the case in the typical Rotisserie draft, but the closer market is generally driven by the first to take the plunge, which can vary from draft to draft. It's also a much deeper market than it's been in recent years.
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Round 9) and Shota Imanaga (Round 20) are two pitchers from Japan who haven't actually signed with a major-league club yet. Their stock only figures to go up when they do. I'm much more excited about the former than the latter, and the gap between them is more or less appropriate.
• We're obviously speculating on the roster status of Wyatt Langford (Pick 139), Jackson Holliday (180), Jackson Chourio (230), James Wood (245) and Paul Skenes (260), five prospects who haven't actually debuted yet. I'm down with drafting the first three but not so much the last two in a league of this size.
  

That about covers it. Let's get to the draft already.