2024 NFL Mock Draft: Patriots' Bill Belichick gets QB, Caleb Williams falls to unexpected team outside top 5

We shouldn't be so sure Caleb Williams is going to be the first quarterback off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft. Heck, he might not be the second off the board. And let this mock also serve as a reminder that in most of the last decade, a "surprise" quarterback has ultimately been picked in the top 3 selections. 

In 2024, that may very well be LSU's likely Heisman-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels. Oh, and for the second straight week, I've completed this mock with a Justin Fields trade in mind. 

Here's the mock trade I've conjured this time around. 

Falcons get: QB Justin Fields, 2025 fifth-round pick
Bears get: No. 53 overall (second-round pick), a conditional 2025 third-round pick that becomes a second-round pick if Fields plays 75% of the 2024 snaps, and WR Scott Miller

Important: The draft order is based on all the games played through Week 13. Thanks to Tankathon for compiling it. 

For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on "With the First Pick" -- our year-round NFL Draft podcast with NFL Draft analyst Ryan Wilson and former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. You can find "With the First Pick" wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, etc. Listen to the latest episode below!

NFL Mock Draft

Round 1

From Carolina Panthers Round 1 - Pick 1 Drake Maye QB North Carolina • Soph • 6'4" / 230 lbs Projected Team Chicago PROSPECT RNK 6th POSITION RNK 2nd After the Fields trade, the Bears have their sights set on the quarterback market in the draft and land on Maye, a polished, multiple-year starter with mobility and a strong arm.

Round 1 - Pick 2 Jayden Daniels QB LSU • Sr • 6'4" / 210 lbs Projected Team New England PROSPECT RNK 14th POSITION RNK 3rd Surprise! The Patriots go with Daniels over Caleb Williams as the second quarterback off the board. Daniels is an athletic marvel with two years of high-caliber passing productivity in the SEC.

Round 1 - Pick 3 Marvin Harrison Jr. WR Ohio State • Jr • 6'4" / 205 lbs Projected Team Arizona PROSPECT RNK 1st POSITION RNK 1st The Cardinals would have quite the conundrum here: in this mock, they stay with Murray and get him the premier weapon in the class.

Round 1 - Pick 4 Olumuyiwa Fashanu OT Penn State • Jr • 6'6" / 317 lbs Projected Team Washington PROSPECT RNK 3rd POSITION RNK 1st The Commanders would have a major decision to make here: go Caleb Williams, pick a stellar offensive tackle prospect, or trade down. In this mock, they go with the brick-wall blocker from Penn State who boasts All-Pro upside.

Round 1 - Pick 5 Laiatu Latu EDGE UCLA • Sr • 6'5" / 265 lbs Projected Team Chicago PROSPECT RNK 8th POSITION RNK 1st Lati is the most ready-to-go, off-the-bus outside rusher in the class, which is precisely what this surprisingly surging Bears defense needs.

Mock Trade from New York Jets Round 1 - Pick 6 Caleb Williams QB USC • Jr • 6'1" / 215 lbs Projected Team Tampa Bay PROSPECT RNK 2nd POSITION RNK 1st Buccaneers GM Jason Licht is never one to back away from a splash move in the offseason. Here, he swings a deal with the Jets to stop Williams' fall.

Round 1 - Pick 7 Malik Nabers WR LSU • Jr • 6'0" / 200 lbs Projected Team N.Y. Giants PROSPECT RNK 11th POSITION RNK 2nd While I'd be surprised if the Giants don't go quarterback here, with three already off the board and Daniel Jones' $35 million fully guaranteed 2024 salary on the books, they actually may go in a different direction inside the top 10.

Round 1 - Pick 8 Joe Alt OT Notre Dame • Jr • 6'7" / 322 lbs Projected Team Tennessee PROSPECT RNK 5th POSITION RNK 2nd Alt may not have All-Pro upside, but he's pro-ready, which is exactly what the Titans should be looking for at tackle entering 2024.

Round 1 - Pick 9 Brock Bowers TE Georgia • Jr • 6'4" / 240 lbs Projected Team New Orleans PROSPECT RNK 4th POSITION RNK 1st The Saints could use more weaponry for Derek Carr, and Bowers is as complete as they come at the tight end position.

Mock Trade from Tampa Bay Buccaneers Round 1 - Pick 10 JC Latham OT Alabama • Jr • 6'6" / 360 lbs Projected Team N.Y. Jets PROSPECT RNK 7th POSITION RNK 3rd No one will fault the Jets for getting a nasty blocker with brute strength to protect Aaron Rodgers.

Round 1 - Pick 11 Kool-Aid McKinstry CB Alabama • Jr • 6'1" / 195 lbs Projected Team Las Vegas PROSPECT RNK 12th POSITION RNK 1st McKinstry is the exact cornerback the Raiders need in the secondary. Physical, alpha mentality on the perimeter.

Round 1 - Pick 12 Jer'Zhan Newton DL Illinois • Jr • 6'2" / 295 lbs Projected Team L.A. Chargers PROSPECT RNK 28th POSITION RNK 1st The most sought after interior rusher goes to the team with the biggest need on the inside of its defensive front.

Round 1 - Pick 13 Rome Odunze WR Washington • Jr • 6'3" / 215 lbs Projected Team Buffalo PROSPECT RNK 27th POSITION RNK 5th Odunze is an intimidating, sculpted presence on the perimeter. Fun addition to Buffalo's offense.

Round 1 - Pick 14 Taliese Fuaga OT Oregon State • Jr • 6'6" / 334 lbs Projected Team Denver PROSPECT RNK 18th POSITION RNK 5th Fuaga's a masher who'd fit well at right tackle in Denver.

Round 1 - Pick 15 Kamren Kinchens S Miami (FL) • Jr • 6'0" / 205 lbs Projected Team Seattle PROSPECT RNK 34th POSITION RNK 1st Leave it to the Seahawks to make a surprise Round 1 selection every year. Check their draft history. Kinchens here would feel a touch early, but he's arguably the finest safety prospect in the class.

Round 1 - Pick 16 Chop Robinson EDGE Penn State • Jr • 6'3" / 254 lbs Projected Team L.A. Rams PROSPECT RNK 23rd POSITION RNK 5th HIghway robbery here for the Rams, who add the ultra-athletic rusher with rubber-band bend at No. 16 overall.

Round 1 - Pick 17 Keon Coleman WR Florida State • Jr • 6'4" / 215 lbs Projected Team Cincinnati PROSPECT RNK 15th POSITION RNK 3rd If Tee Higgins isn't re-signed, Coleman would the natural replacement. Similar frame and skill set.

From Houston Texans Round 1 - Pick 18 Jared Verse EDGE Florida State • Jr • 6'4" / 260 lbs Projected Team Arizona PROSPECT RNK 9th POSITION RNK 2nd Head coach Jonathan Gannon came up in the Philadelphia organization, where the pass rush was relentless, and an onus was put on the defensive line in the first round.

Round 1 - Pick 19 Amarius Mims OT Georgia • Jr • 6'7" / 340 lbs Projected Team Atlanta PROSPECT RNK 13th POSITION RNK 4th With Justin Fields in the mix, the Falcons go back to the offensive side of the ball in Round 1. Mims has monstrous upside and can eventually replace Kaleb McGary at right tackle.

Round 1 - Pick 20 Cooper DeJean CB Iowa • Jr • 6'1" / 207 lbs Projected Team Green Bay PROSPECT RNK 19th POSITION RNK 4th The Packers are kinda-sorta in best-player-available mode here, and DeJean's playmaking instincts get him selected this high to a team that hasn't shied away from defensive backs early in the draft.

Round 1 - Pick 21 Bo Nix QB Oregon • Sr • 6'2" / 217 lbs Projected Team Minnesota PROSPECT RNK 39th POSITION RNK 7th A springy, experienced, productive quarterback this late in the first round represents a bargain for the Vikings. Easy choice at this stage of Kirk Cousins' career.

Round 1 - Pick 22 Leonard Taylor III DL Miami (FL) • Soph • 6'3" / 305 lbs Projected Team Indianapolis PROSPECT RNK 35th POSITION RNK 2nd While not quite as eye-poppingly disruptive as he was in 2022, Taylor is still a strong, athletic, physical specimen at defensive tackle, who'd represent the future inside for the Colts defensive front.

Round 1 - Pick 23 Kalen King CB Penn State • Jr • 5'11" / 190 lbs Projected Team Pittsburgh PROSPECT RNK 17th POSITION RNK 3rd It's a Penn State reunion in the Steelers secondary. Joey Porter Jr. and King usher in a new, lockdown era at cornerback in Pittsburgh.

From Cleveland Browns Round 1 - Pick 24 Bralen Trice EDGE Washington • Jr • 6'4" / 274 lbs Projected Team Houston PROSPECT RNK 24th POSITION RNK 6th Trice is an ultra-refined pass-rush move karate master with his hands who'd generate a fun pairing with Will Anderson Jr. on the edge in Houston.

Round 1 - Pick 25 Jordan Morgan OT Arizona • Sr • 6'5" / 325 lbs Projected Team Kansas City PROSPECT RNK 43rd POSITION RNK 7th Morgan is a sizable, athletic pass-pro specialist who'd be a sensible pick in Kansas City, especially with the long-term future in mind.

Round 1 - Pick 26 Graham Barton OT Duke • Sr • 6'5" / 314 lbs Projected Team Jacksonville PROSPECT RNK 38th POSITION RNK 6th More reinforcement up front in front of Trevor Lawrence with the polished guard-tackle prospect from Duke.

Round 1 - Pick 27 Tyler Nubin S Minnesota • Sr • 6'2" / 210 lbs Projected Team Dallas PROSPECT RNK 45th POSITION RNK 3rd Nubin is a do-everything safety prospect who has pieced together another fine season at Minnesota.

Round 1 - Pick 28 Nate Wiggins CB Clemson • Jr • 6'2" / 185 lbs Projected Team Detroit PROSPECT RNK 16th POSITION RNK 2nd More cornerback help on the perimeter with the twitchy defender from Clemson.

Round 1 - Pick 29 Xavier Legette WR South Carolina • Sr • 6'3" / 227 lbs Projected Team San Francisco PROSPECT RNK 74th POSITION RNK 14th Legette is the gritty YAC monster the 49ers would adore to incorporate into their offense.

Round 1 - Pick 30 Dallas Turner EDGE Alabama • Jr • 6'4" / 242 lbs Projected Team Baltimore PROSPECT RNK 10th POSITION RNK 3rd Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy have been tremendous adds for the Ravens in 2023. This pick is made with the future in mind.

Round 1 - Pick 31 Edgerrin Cooper LB Texas A&M • Jr • 6'3" / 230 lbs Projected Team Miami PROSPECT RNK 75th POSITION RNK 5th Cooper was a star in another disappointing year at Texas A&M, and the Dolphins would like more long-term stability at that second-level position.

Round 1 - Pick 32 Jonah Elliss EDGE Utah • Jr • 6'2" / 246 lbs Projected Team Philadelphia PROSPECT RNK 111th POSITION RNK 14th Elliss is an emerging edge rusher in this class, and the Eagles will want to continue to prepare for the future at that position.